Roughnecks Cash Annual Check!

Thanks to an enormous final day in which Coach Wozniak benefitted from the likes of Mark Rzepcynski and Nelson Figueroa, the Roughnecks tapped that black gold to capture their 3rd PLPFBL championship in the last four years. Congrats to Greg, who has now taken home $1600 in his four seasons in the league.

Coach Bret and PC LOAD LETTER?!?!? finished a disappointing 2nd. Team PC's final tally was 205.5 points, which would have blown away the competition in any other season. The previous high in points was 192.5 by the 2008 champion Roughnecks.

Taking home the third place prize was the Chirag's Chumps. Coach Amin was the predraft favorite after drawing the "lucky" 16th position in the draft. The Chumps played well all season, but could never catch the two top dogs of 2010.

Prizes....
1st Greg Wozniak, Roughnecks, $500
2nd Bret Jenkins, PC LOAD LETTER, $300
3rd Chirag Amin, Chumps, $100

2010: A Pennant Race Odyssey

Who will take the $500 first place prize?

Greg, and the two-time champion Roughnecks?












OR

Bret, and his four-time money winning PC LOAD LETTER?!?!? team?

Team PC

As of July 17th, PC LOAD LETTER?!?!? holds a 16.5 point lead over the second place Roughnecks. At one point, Bret Jenkins' squad had over 200 rotisserie points. How is he doing it? Well, 194 transactions shows he's working hard, but it looks like his successful draft is really what has kept this ballclub in first place almost all year.

You can start with PC's firstbasemen; first round pick, Miguel Cabrera and eighth round pick, James Loney. The Tigers' firstbaseman has posted 65 R, 67 RBI, 205 TB, and a .419 OB% for team PC and is currently ranked as Yahoo!'s best offensive player in 2010. Loney has put up 47 R, 60 RBI, 144 TB, and a .360 OB% for the LETTER.

Next, go to the outfield, where Bret has capitalized, probably more than any other fantasy team in the country, on the first half success of two Toronto Blue Jays, Vernon Wells and Jose Bautista. Wells was a guy I wouldn't have drafted at all this year, but Bret went out and got him in the 9th round. Wells has responded by posting a 40 R, 48 RBI, 162 TB, .305 OB% line. And while Bautista wasn't technically drafted by Bret, Bautista was acquired in the first run of post-draft waivers on April 3rd. Bautista has put up 51 R, 48 RBI, 147 TB, .354 OB% totals. On the basepaths, Bret has shuffled between Scott Podsednik and Nyger Morgan and gotten 13 SB out of each of them.

On the hill, Jered Weaver (9 W, 142 K, 3.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), Dan Haren (7 W, 133 K, 4.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), and Jeff Niemann (8 W, 90 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) have carried the load. Max Scherzer and Doug Fister have also put up significant numbers for the LETTER. Fourth and fifth round draft picks, Jonathan Papelbon (20 SV) and Heath Bell (25 SV) have piled on saves, while free agent pickup John Axford has chipped in with seven of his own. Middle man, Mike Adams leads all of MLB in holds, racking up 22 for Bret's squad.

What's gone wrong? Sitting in first place and having two of the most surprising players in baseball on your squad, it's hard to imagine that anything has gone wrong with this team. But Jenkins can point at second round pick, Pablo Sandoval, as being a disappointment so far. Sandoval's counting stats are pathetic, and he's only produced a .316 OB% for team PC. Bret also drafted Jermaine Dye, who didn't and still doesn't have a team, in the 16th round, just a couple slots before Jon Rauch and Kevin Gregg got picked. Oops.

The second half should be interesting for PC LOAD LETTER?!?!?. Can his Blue Jays outfielders continue to produce? Will Sandoval finally start to hit like it's 2009? Will Bret find some middle relief help to make up for DL'd Mike Adams? Can he keep the surging Roughnecks, Chumps, and Thons at bay?

Trade Hysteria!

The PLPFBL trading season has begun. Err, tried to begin. Trades are being accepted and then voted down faster than it takes Oliver Perez to melt down on the mound. The message board is lighting up daily, full of angry responses to the 2010 trade hysteria. As commissioner, this will go down as my Hurricane Katrina. How will I handle this crisis?

Let's look at the first three trades that got vetoed....

On 4/17, the Sketchy Mustaches were going to trade Placido Polanco, David DeJesus, and Francisco Cordero and receive Hanley Ramirez and Scott Downs from 69 wit SuzynWaldman.

Since that day, here's how these players have fared....

Ramirez: .351ob%, 7r, 9rbi, 1sb, 27tb, 7k
Downs: 7.71era, 2hld, 7ip, 6k
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Polanco: .218ob%, 3r, 2rbi, 1sb, 13tb, 8k
DeJesus: .338ob%, 7r, 6rbi, 0sb, 28tb, 7k
Cordero: 3.68era, 5sv, 7.1ip, 6k

Polanco looked like the NL MVP after the first two weeks but has since crashed hard. DeJesus continues to produce admirably and Cordero is picking up his saves. Ramirez hasn't quite turned it on yet, however, we're pretty sure that Hanley is going to finish the season with over 100R, over 100RBI, and an OB% close to .400, making him one of the top fantasy players.

Later that same day, a similar trade was accepted and vetoed before I even received the trade email. This second deal had J.A. Happ also going to 69 and Scott Downs staying put. J.A. Happ has not made an appearance since then.

Most owners seemed to think that trading away Hanley Ramirez for a bunch of solid, yet unspectacular roster filler seemed like an early desperation move by 69. The two trades were voted down quickly.

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Four days later, 69 with SuzynWaldman was at it again. Seemingly intent on giving up his star players, 69 attempted two trades that were vetoed within 35 minutes of eachother.

First, 69 agreed to trade away Kendry Morales to the Mustaches for Bronson Arroyo, Scott Feldman, and Francisco Cordero. Yikes! Since that trade was vetoed Kendry Morales has gone on a tear, putting up a .432ob%, 7r, 10rbi, 24tb, 3k line, while winning the player of the week award that Sunday.

69 should be thanking the league owners because Arroyo has an ERA of 9.31 since then. Feldman hasn't been much better, pitching to a 4.66ERA and a WHIP near 2.00. Again, Cordero has been picking up his saves, but I'll keep Morales.

In the second vetoed deal of the morning, 69 was trading away Hanley Ramirez again. This time it was to Mount Gay Rum. The Gay Rum actually had a decent offer here, including the likes of B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, and Leo Nunez. Here's the numbers since 4/21:

Ramirez: .378ob%, 6r, 8rbi, 0sb, 25tb, 7k
Torii Hunter: .372ob%, 6r, 7rbi, 2sb, 22tb, 5k
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B.J. Upton: .348ob%, 10r, 4rbi, 3sb, 15tb, 9k
Swisher: .409ob%, 8r, 9rbi, 0sb, 28tb, 5k
Alex Gonzalez: .302ob%, 6r, 12rbi, 0sb, 27tb, 15k
Nunez: 0.00era, 1sv, 4ip, 3k

Swisher has had a good two weeks, while Alex Gonzalez continues to produce TBs somehow. Upton is getting a few SBs and Nunez has a sick WHIP right now.

On the other side of the argument, Hanley is Hanley, and Torii Hunter has turned it on hard in the last few games. Again, most owners thought that 69 was giving up way to much in order to try and fill a few "dead" spots in his lineup, and voted the deal down.

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Finally, Sunday saw two more deals get squashed. The first involved notorious slow-starter and biggest tool in baseball, Mark Teixeira. Teixeira is a career .237 / .345 / .414 (avg/ob%/slg) in April, while the rest of the year he just mashes. After hearing that Psycho Studs had him on the trading block, Teixeira responded by going 4 for 5 that afternoon and is now 6 for 9 in May.

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In possibly the strangest vetoed deal in the history of fantasy baseball, one team was trading away two average starting pitchers (Derek Lowe and Scott Feldman) for a middle reliever (white-trash representative Joba Chamberlain), and owners thought that the team receiving the middle reliever was ripping the other guy off!!!! A middle reliever! Amazing. Only in this league.

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Seriously though, this trade veto is going to make me think about the setup of this fantasy league. I have a few ideas that might work to decrease the value of a relief pitcher that qualifies in the SP slot....

-I could raise the Innings Pitched maximum, which would increase the value of starting pitching.

-I could eliminate the Holds category and add the Quality Start category, which would both increase the value of starters and decrease the value of middle relievers.

-Or, preferably, I'd like to combine Saves, Holds, and Wins into one big category, and add Quality Starts.

Does Draft Position Matter in the PLPFBL?

In 2010, like all previous PicketLine baseball seasons, the draft order will be randomly determined about thirty minutes before the draft begins.

I'm sure most owners believe there are "good slots" and "bad slots". With twenty owners, drafting in the back of the first round can look like doomsday. So, I've looked through the past six seasons of the league, and will try and see if there is any relationship between draft position and the final standings.

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First, let's look at the teams that have drawn the #1 pick overall....

2004: Neck Snap, Bret Jenkins (Alex Rodriguez), finished 6th
2005: Kingman's Killers, Sean Comerford (Albert Pujols), finished 10th
2006: Red Hook Rosin Bags, Sean Comerford (Albert Pujols), finished 15th
2007: Mangini's Mutts, Eric Rosin (Albert Pujols), finished 19th
2008: Mount Gay Rum, Rob Moran (Jose Reyes), finished 9th
2009: Cellar Dwellers, Ken Koller (Hanley Ramirez), finished 19th

The highest finish in this group is 6th place, while the average finish is 13th. Yuck. All of these #1 picks rewarded their owners with first round seasons, but the fact that these owners didn't choose again until the 40th pick may have doomed them.

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Next, let's check out the teams that finished in last place. Where are they drafting?

2004: Neptune, unknown owner (Todd Helton), drafted 6th
2005: One for the Money, Tim Garvey (Eric Gagne), drafted 9th
2006: All the way home, Tim Garvey (Michael Young), drafted 14th
2007: Homos, Brad Bruntyn (Manny Ramirez), drafted 17th
2008: X-Factors, Joe Werner (Johan Santana), drafted 5th
2009: Bent St Bashers, Bryan Bentley (Jimmy Rollins), drafted 15th

The highest draft position among last place finishers is 5th, while the average draft position is 11th.

These draft selections are all over the place however. Some of these players produced typical seasons, or even exceeded expectations, while some of them bombed. For example, Todd Helton produced a typically great season in 2004, while Eric Gagne's career came to a screeching halt in 2005, appearing in only 13 games that season.

Basically, draft position, and quality of draft pick of the last place finishers doesn't seem to make a difference. My guess is that these teams were hurt by seasons of bad luck and bad decision making along the way.

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Finally, let's see where the top finishers have been slotted into the draft.... at first glance, the data appears to be quite stunning.

Of the first place finishers in the history of the league, the draft positions are as follows....

16th, 16th, 13th (out of 17), 18th, 15th, 16th. Wow. Who doesn't want the 16th pick right now?

The most reasonable argument is that having the ability to pick a top player with the 16th pick, then come back and choose again with the 25th pick, really solidifies your team with two top stars.

However, if you take into account the 2nd and 3rd place finishers as well, the draft position quickly evens out.

The highest draft position of any team that has finished in the top three, is the 2nd overall pick. This happened last season when Mount Gay Rum selected Albert Pujols with the 2nd pick and ended up finishing 3rd overall.

The average draft position of the top three finishers is 10th. This tells me that basically, draft position doesn't matter in determining which owners have a good season.

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In amateur conclusion, I believe that the combination of luck (good or bad), free agent pickups, and mid-round draft picks are the real determining factors of fantasy success.

2010 Press Release

I'm here to talk about the past. My team was awful last year. Mainly because I was way too roided up. Too many injections in my ass cheek. I was angry and not talking about the past. I was in and out of bathroom stalls with the likes of Bernie Williams and Greg Maddox. Both guys were injecting me simultaneously prior to the draft as well as every night a half hour before gametime. Glavine and Scotty Brosious sat down with my and told me about the pre-game injections to their teammates (which included Jeeter). I will not mention any names other than Jim Leyritz and Sid Bream. Sid was a monster in the bathroom stall. He is known to have torn lockerooms apart in rages. Sid and Otis were injecting "buddies". Davey Justice liked to watch and then inject himself in private.