I'm sure most owners believe there are "good slots" and "bad slots". With twenty owners, drafting in the back of the first round can look like doomsday. So, I've looked through the past six seasons of the league, and will try and see if there is any relationship between draft position and the final standings.
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First, let's look at the teams that have drawn the #1 pick overall....
2004: Neck Snap, Bret Jenkins (Alex Rodriguez), finished 6th
2005: Kingman's Killers, Sean Comerford (Albert Pujols), finished 10th
2006: Red Hook Rosin Bags, Sean Comerford (Albert Pujols), finished 15th
2007: Mangini's Mutts, Eric Rosin (Albert Pujols), finished 19th
2008: Mount Gay Rum, Rob Moran (Jose Reyes), finished 9th
2009: Cellar Dwellers, Ken Koller (Hanley Ramirez), finished 19th
The highest finish in this group is 6th place, while the average finish is 13th. Yuck. All of these #1 picks rewarded their owners with first round seasons, but the fact that these owners didn't choose again until the 40th pick may have doomed them.----------
Next, let's check out the teams that finished in last place. Where are they drafting?
2004: Neptune, unknown owner (Todd Helton), drafted 6th
2005: One for the Money, Tim Garvey (Eric Gagne), drafted 9th
2006: All the way home, Tim Garvey (Michael Young), drafted 14th
2007: Homos, Brad Bruntyn (Manny Ramirez), drafted 17th
2008: X-Factors, Joe Werner (Johan Santana), drafted 5th
2009: Bent St Bashers, Bryan Bentley (Jimmy Rollins), drafted 15th
The highest draft position among last place finishers is 5th, while the average draft position is 11th.These draft selections are all over the place however. Some of these players produced typical seasons, or even exceeded expectations, while some of them bombed. For example, Todd Helton produced a typically great season in 2004, while Eric Gagne's career came to a screeching halt in 2005, appearing in only 13 games that season.
Basically, draft position, and quality of draft pick of the last place finishers doesn't seem to make a difference. My guess is that these teams were hurt by seasons of bad luck and bad decision making along the way.
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Finally, let's see where the top finishers have been slotted into the draft.... at first glance, the data appears to be quite stunning.
Of the first place finishers in the history of the league, the draft positions are as follows....
16th, 16th, 13th (out of 17), 18th, 15th, 16th. Wow. Who doesn't want the 16th pick right now?
The most reasonable argument is that having the ability to pick a top player with the 16th pick, then come back and choose again with the 25th pick, really solidifies your team with two top stars.However, if you take into account the 2nd and 3rd place finishers as well, the draft position quickly evens out.
The highest draft position of any team that has finished in the top three, is the 2nd overall pick. This happened last season when Mount Gay Rum selected Albert Pujols with the 2nd pick and ended up finishing 3rd overall.
The average draft position of the top three finishers is 10th. This tells me that basically, draft position doesn't matter in determining which owners have a good season.
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In amateur conclusion, I believe that the combination of luck (good or bad), free agent pickups, and mid-round draft picks are the real determining factors of fantasy success.
